๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐๐ฃ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐จ๐ง๐จ๐ฆ๐ข๐ ๐๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐จ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐๐ซ: ๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฌ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฃ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ
- Filipe Pereira
- Dec 21, 2024
- 2 min read
This week we witnessed the last major event of the year:ย the Federal Reserve (FED) decided to lower interest rates by 0.25%, bringing them to 4.25%. At the beginning of the year, rates were at 5.25%, resulting in a total reduction of 1 percentage point over 2024. However, projections for 2025 suggest that rate cuts will be less significant than those observed this year.
This slower pace of rate reductions reflects the new economic projections released in December, which replaced the estimates from September. These updated figures reveal some interesting trends: the U.S. economy is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2025, up from the previous estimate of 2%. The unemployment rate is also expected to decline from 4.4% to 4.2%. On the other hand, inflationโparticularly core inflation, which excludes food and energyโis projected to rise to 2.8%.
As a result, the anticipated rate cuts in 2025 will likely be smaller than initially expected. On Wednesday, the FED released the Dot Plot, a chart that reflects the expectations of its members for upcoming meetings and the longer term. According to the consensus, rates are expected to stabilize around 3.75% in 2025, indicating only two rate cuts next year. The first is likely to occur in March, with the second expected between May and June. This means a more prolonged period of stable rates before further reductions.
Markets reacted with a significant correction on Wednesday, which is justified by the excessive gains seen in recent months, especially following Donald Trumpโs election, which spurred some euphoria. Therefore, this correction is considered normal.
In my view, there were no major surprises in the FED's announcement. Interest rates will decrease, but at a slower pace than expected. Consequently, U.S. rates rose to 4.5%, and in Europe, rates also began to climb.
However, there are important differences between the monetary policies of the two regions: while the U.S. is expected to cut rates only twice, Europe is likely to reduce rates to around 1.75% next year. This trend has also contributed to the euro's depreciation against the dollar.
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